Last Update on 29 November، 2023
Starting from 2012 to this year Turkey real estate market has proven its place among global markets and has been among the top 20 desirable markets for foreign investment. Many factors played significant reasons to place Turkey in an important position in the international real estate market. For instance, to mention a few, its geographic location, beautiful nature, urbanization development projects, infrastructure development, ease of regulations for foreign investors, flexible and cheaper Turkish citizenship programs compared to other global markets and affordable prices compared to other countries, especially in Europe.
However, in the last two years, Turkish and foreign buyers have hesitated to buy property in Turkey due to some challenges Turkey’s economy has witnessed. Many people are wondering whether it is still profitable to buy a property in Turkey under the current situation.
In this article, we will discuss the challenges the Turkish Real Estate Market is facing, its future projections and current trends to provide answers to your questions.
What are the challenges Turkey real estate market is facing?
Currently, the Turkish real estate market faces many challenges due to local and global economic issues. Let’s discuss what we believe are the most important challenges in Turkey real estate market.
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Drop in House Sales
Despite a relatively growing percentage of residential property sales at the beginning of the year, the start of the last quarter has recorded a drop of 8.7% compared to the same month of the previous year. In addition, the period of Jan-Oct has witnessed a decrease in house sales by 14.3% compared to the same period last year.
However, real estate experts expect an increase in property sales probably towards the end of 2024. Their expectation is based on the fact that the market is in a reformation phase where stability is being shaped.
It is also important to mention here that after the earthquake, the need to provide earthquake-resilient buildings is in high demand, and the Turkish population is in constant growth whether naturally or by immigrants. Therefore, the need to provide accommodation to cover the demand is constantly there. This means that the market will always be dynamic and active. Thus, even if the drop will remain till the first quarter of 2024, the possibility of gaining its activity is high.
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High Inflation
The second challenge that the Turkish economy in general and the real estate market is witnessing, is inflation which has surpassed high levels in Turkey this year. This is due to many reasons, such as the presidential elections and the devastating earthquake that hit last February among other reasons.
As a result of this increase in inflation, life costs in general have increased. Of course, property prices have been affected as well, and the Turkey real estate market has witnessed a jump in property prices.
However, a recent statistic has shown that October of this year has recorded a slightly lower inflation rate compared to previous months. Since it showed a rate of 61.4, the Turkish Central Bank had to revise its inflation projections for 2024 to state a disinflation by the second half of the year.
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Currency Fluctuation
It is a natural sequence of inflation to have the Turkish Lira fluctuation to foreign exchange reach its highest level this year and have an impact on Turkey real estate market. The uncertainty and leap drop of the Turkish Lira has caused an increase in building materials’ cost that led to an increase in overall construction costs, thus the property prices.
This uncertainty may raise concerns for both local and foreign investors whether to invest or not, as in the short-term period, buying a property in Turkey may not be beneficial for foreign buyers and investors who use foreign currency.
However, with the new monetary policy that has taken place, inflation is slowing down which will affect the Turkish Lira positively.
Moreover, as we mentioned above, the construction cost includes the cost of building materials that are in foreign currencies, such as USD. Therefore, the property prices are determined accordingly, and the foreign investors are investing in a foreign currency, let it be in EURO, USD or GBP, and are not directly affected by the Turkish Lira situation.
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Interest Rate
After almost two years of constantly lowering the interest rate, this year has witnessed an increase in the interest rate. The lower interest rates assisted in increasing the inflation, and by hiking them up, chances of slowing the inflation and gradually ending it are there.
Despite the current challenges Turkey real estate market is facing, the last few months have shown slow movements towards recovery. Especially with the new actions the Turkish Government has started implementing, such as assigning Mehmet Simsek the head of the finance bank and his reforms.
So, what are the new policies and how do they affect the current situation?
Reforms and Opportunities in Turkey Real Estate Market
We can not start talking about reforms and the Turkish government’s policies to recover from the current situation without talking about the new head of the finance bank, Mr Mehmet Simsek.
Who is Mehmet Simsek?
Mehmet Simsek is a notable Turkish economist and political figure. He served in important positions in Turkey, such as Deputy Prime Minister for Economic and Financial Affairs of Turkey from 2015-2018, Minister of Finance (2009-15), and Minister of Economy (2007-09)
Probably what makes him significant in the economy and finance world is his structural reforms during previous economic crises and recessions.
Therefore, having him as the head of the finance bank has reassured both, local and foreign, investors. In fact, many foreign investors started to invest in bank funds since his appointment.
So, what did he do to reform the economy?
- Reform the Fiscal Policy
The first step to recovering this situation was reforming the fiscal policy by adopting a tight monetary policy that would slow down inflation.
As a result of this policy, inflation which was expected to rise to 65% by the end of the year, showed a decline in Oct, as the inflation rate is less than 61.2% which is the first time to show a slowdown since June this year.
After this positive turnaround in the inflation and economy in general, it is expected to have a slowdown and stabilized economy for 2024 and disinflation starting from the second quarter of the same year.
This projection gives an indication that the following years, let us say from 2025 will witness growth in Turkey’s real estate market and flourish foreign investment once again.
Future Expectations in the Turkey Real Estate Market
Economists and real estate experts have a positive outlook for the year to come. Here are a few important projections on the real estate market in Turkey.
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Political Stability
Unlike the current year with the presidential elections and their effect, 2024 is more likely to witness political stability.
This promotes overall stability, especially in the economy, thus a potential growth that is believed to continue for a long term of five years ahead.
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Economy Growth and Stabilization
As a part of this tight policy, was hiking the interest bank fee from 8.5 to 25 %. Adjusting the interest fee is essential for a more stabilized economy and currency. For example, raising interest rates attracts foreign capital, thus improving and supporting the Turkish Lira.
As we mentioned above, the fruit of the tight policy in stabilizing the life costs has already been seen, and this proves that for the following year, inflation will resume its decline resulting in economic growth.
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Continuous Support for Foreign Investors
The Turkish government has shown great support to foreign investors by providing a foreign-friendly investment environment in Turkey, especially in terms of real estate. This continues by simplifying buying property in Turkey’s procedures for foreigners. Such as tax exemptions, digitalizing buying procedures, and providing one of the most affordable and easiest citizenship and residence programs for international buyers. It is important to point out here that Turkey might be among the rare countries in Europe that offer residence permits upon property ownership. For example, buying a house in the UK, regardless of the price, will never guarantee a residence permit or even citizenship for the buyer.
It is worth pointing out that Turkey possesses the fundamentals for a strong international real estate market which will help overcome the current situation that the whole world is going through and lead the market once again.
The Latest Trends in the Turkish Real Estate Market
This year has recorded various trends in Turkey real estate market, and some trends continue to be dominant, such as Russian buyers’ interest to buy a property in Turkey.
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Russian Buyers’ Interest Continues
Russians have been always part of foreign investors in Turkey, especially in the Mediterranean provinces, such as Antalya. However, this year has witnessed further interest from Russian investors buying residential properties in Turkey, putting them at the top of the foreign buyers of the Turkish property list.
According to TUIK October statistics, Russian citizens have bought around 713 properties in Turkey from the beginning of this year.
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Significant Increase in House Prices
Following the February earthquake, Turkey has faced a shortage of properties. This has led to having more demand than supply, which led to further price increases.
Also, as we mentioned above, inflation has affected property prices in Turkey and caused a jump in sales prices.
Moreover, Rental prices have also witnessed an increase due to the continued rise of inflation. Adding to this is the fact that house owners tend to raise the rent fees to cope with overall life expenses.
F.A.Q
1- Is it safe to invest in Real estate in Turkey?
Real estate investment just like any other investment carries its pros and cons. However, any potential risk can be avoided by conducting thorough research on the market, familiarizing yourself with the process, getting to know what is expected from you, and dealing with trustworthy agents and local experts.
2- Which city in Turkey has the cheapest property?
Didim, Dalaman, Kayseri, and Mardin are the cheapest cities in Turkey.
3- Can a foreigner buy a property in Turkey?
Yes, but a property that is not in a military area.
4- How long can you stay in Turkey if you own a property?
Owning a property in Turkey can allow you to stay for two years on a short-term residence permit or five years on a long-term residence permit. The difference in duration depends on the type of residence permit you apply for.
5- Can I get citizenship if I buy a house in Turkey?
There is a Turkish Citizenship through investment program that allows a property owner who owns a property that is worth $ 500,000 or more to claim a Turkish Citizenship. Also, this may apply to several properties that sum up to 500.000$ or more.
6- Can I get residency in Turkey if I buy a house?
Yes, you can. Recent changes in Turkish Immigration law state that as a foreigner you can apply for a short-term residence if you buy a real estate that is worth 75.000$ or more.
7- Which nationalities can buy a property in Turkey?
Turkish law allows all nationalities to buy properties in Turkey except for Syrians, Armenians, Cubans, and North Koreans.
